I can't understand how people approach the Grand National with such a random approach. They'll choose a horse for its name James Starks Jersey , or they'll stick a pin in the list and hope for the best. I'm going to show you three simple steps (and a fourth for luck) that will help you shorten that list to 5 or 6. It works almost every year...
First of all, don't believe that this pattern applies every year. There are so many exceptions, and they prove the rule. Last year's winner, Don't Push It, ran in with the heaviest weight on a horse for many, many years. However, the year before, Mon Mome was an outsider at a perfect weight - and it is the weight that we have to analyse first.
Rule number 1: Any more than 11st is to be regarded with caution
In fact, any weight more than 11st5lb is to be excluded completely. I'd say that the handicapper has got these horses in the bag, and has given them such a weight to carry that they'll find it hard to beat less good horses who are carrying less. Why is it such an issue? Well, it's a huge race. They race over 4 miles and jump over 30 fences - the longer the race goes on, the more the weight becomes an issue. Between 2006 and 2009, every horse carried 10st6lb - and this is an ideal racing weight. Occasionally, an exceptional horse will break that trend, but there are other trends to look out for.
Rule number 2: The winner must be lightly raced
If this is a test of stamina, then surely the trainer will have planned for it? On many occasions, not so. Horses that have run in the Cheltenham festival just 3 weeks previously stand little chance of getting round at the front of the race. So, you should be looking at horses that have been targeted solely at this race - if they are fresh, they do have more of a chance.
Rule number 3: Not too young, not too old
You don't find 7 year old horses winning the Grand National, and you very rarely find 12-year-old horses winning it. So Jared Abbrederis Jersey , take out those horses, and you're left with a shorter shortlist. The truth is that most of the winners over the last few years have been 9, 10 or maybe 11 years old.
Rule number 4: Don't put your mortgage on it
Seriously, there are many races out there in which you can make money, but the Grand National is not really one of them. Consider it a bit of fun, and consider it a challenge - you've worked hard to whittle the list down, and you've worked hard to pick out a winner from your shortlist, but don't bank on it happening - there is no such thing as a dead cert in the Aintree National!
So - four rules - and there are others that I'll tell you all about over the next few weeks. In the meantime, take a look at the long list for this year's Grand National and see what it looks like with the first three rules applied. Not so many horses now, are there!
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